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AI may raise global trade 40%, GDP 13% by 2040: WTO

22 Sep '25
2 min read
 AI may raise global trade 40%, GDP 13% by 2040: WTO
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • AI could boost cross-border trade by nearly 40 per cent and raise global GDP by 12–13 per cent by 2040 if enabling policies are adopted, the 2025 WTO World Trade Report said.
  • It calls for bridging the digital divide, investing in skills, and keeping trade open, warning of rising AI-related trade barriers and urging inclusive frameworks for growth.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could raise cross-border trade flows by nearly 40 per cent and global GDP by 12–13 per cent by 2040, provided enabling policies are in place, according to the 2025 World Trade Report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariat.

The report stresses bridging the digital divide, investing in workforce skills, and maintaining open trade to ensure inclusive growth.

AI adoption could raise incomes in low- and middle-income economies by 15 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, if their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies is halved.

The report highlights rising barriers, noting that quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods have surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, and tariffs remain high in some low-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45 per cent in some low-income economies.

Trade plays a crucial role in enabling AI-supported growth by facilitating access to AI-enabling goods, which were worth $2.3 trillion in 2023.

"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven. With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in her foreword to the report.

The report also highlights that the WTO provides a forum to discuss AI-related trade measures, with 80 specific trade concerns already raised. It suggests expanding participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updating commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services to make AI more affordable and inclusive.

The report was launched on the opening day of the WTO Public Forum on September 17, 2025.

"The new report comes amid the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years. Yet amid the risks to trade, growth and development prospects, there are bright spots – and one of them is the potential of artificial intelligence," Okonjo-Iweala added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)

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