Australia's LEI up 0.3% in May, outlook mixed: TCB

The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 per cent gain in April. While this marks the second consecutive monthly increase, the LEI’s six-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent (November 2024–May 2025), down sharply from the 1.3 per cent expansion in the previous period (May–November 2024).

“The LEI for Australia increased again in May. All components, except sales to inventory ratio in non-farm sector and rural goods exports, contributed positively to the Index. Overall, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May after turning positive in April,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which tracks current economic conditions—edged up by 0.1 per cent in May to 117.7, after a 0.3 per cent rise in April. The CEI posted a 0.6 per cent gain over the latest six-month period, also decelerating from 1.2 per cent in the preceding half-year.

“Following a lackluster 0.2 per cent q/q GDP growth in Q1 2025, The Conference Board expects Australia’s real GDP to strengthen somewhat and to grow by 1.4 per cent overall in 2025,” Li added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)