Home breadcru News breadcru Policy breadcru Brazil 2023 growth projected to moderate to 1.2%, rise to 1.4% in 2024

Brazil 2023 growth projected to moderate to 1.2%, rise to 1.4% in 2024

19 May '23
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • Growth in Brazil is projected to moderate this year to 1.2 per cent from 2.9 per cent in 2022, IMF said after concluding the Article IV Consultation with Brazil.
  • IMF then expects growth there to improve to 1.4 per cent in 2024 and 2 per cent over the medium term.
  • Core inflation remains elevated, while inflation expectations have edged up.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a moderation in Brazil's economic growth this year, with an anticipated increase in the years to come. Following the Article IV Consultation with Brazil, the IMF has indicated that growth will slow down to 1.2 per cent this year, a decrease from 2.9 per cent in 2022. However, the IMF is optimistic about the future, expecting a rebound in Brazil's growth to 1.4 per cent in 2024, and further accelerating to 2 per cent over the medium term.

“Bringing inflation down is critical to protect vulnerable households, who are hurt the most by high inflation. The monetary policy stance is consistent with reducing inflation to target, in line with the inflation targeting framework that has served Brazil well,” IMF said after the visit.

“The authorities are embarking on an ambitious agenda to steer a sustainable, inclusive, and green economy. Opportunities for greener growth are considerable, including for leveraging Brazil’s competitive advantage in renewable energies,” it said.

“Headline inflation has rapidly declined from last year’s peak, but core inflation remains elevated, while inflation expectations have edged up. Headline inflation is expected to converge to the target by mid-2025. The outlook is subject to downside risks. However, strong buffers, including a sound financial system, large cash buffers by the public sector, and adequate international reserves, support resilience,” IMF’s Ana Corbacho, who led the discussions this year, said in a press release.

IMF recommended ‘a more ambitious’ fiscal effort that continues beyond 2026 to put debt on a firmly declining path, while protecting social and investment spending, supported by an enhanced fiscal framework, further broadening of the tax base, and reforms that tackle spending rigidities.

“Bringing inflation down is critical to protect vulnerable households, who are hurt the most by high inflation. The monetary policy stance is consistent with reducing inflation to target, in line with the inflation targeting framework that has served Brazil well,” Corbacho added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)

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