CAI revises India's cotton output upwards, stocks set to surge

The increase was led by Telangana, where output was revised up by 4.50 lakh bales, and Maharashtra, which added 3.00 lakh bales, while Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also posted smaller gains.

Despite the stronger crop, domestic demand is weakening. CAI has cut India’s cotton consumption estimate for 2025–26 to 305 lakh bales, down from 314 lakh bales last season, signalling slower mill activity amid subdued yarn and fabric demand. Consumption up to December 31, 2025, is pegged at 76.25 lakh bales, indicating a relatively soft start to the season.

Cotton imports remain elevated, underlining mills’ preference for securing quality fibre. CAI has kept its cotton import estimate unchanged at 50 lakh bales, compared with 41.00 lakh bales last year, with about 31 lakh bales already arriving at Indian ports by the end of December 2025. On the export front, CAI has lowered its 2025–26 cotton shipment forecast to 15 lakh bales, down from 18 lakh bales in 2024–25, as global demand weakens and Indian cotton struggles to compete on price. By December 31, 2025, only 4.50 lakh bales had been shipped.

With higher production and imports but lower consumption and exports, India’s cotton balance sheet is set to loosen significantly. Total cotton supply for 2025–26 is estimated at 427.59 lakh bales, compared with 392.59 lakh bales a year earlier, while the available surplus is projected to jump to 122.59 lakh bales, up from 78.59 lakh bales last season.

As a result, closing stocks at the end of September 2026 are expected to rise sharply to 107.59 lakh bales, from 60.59 lakh bales at the end of the previous season. By the end of December 2025 itself, stocks were already estimated at 166.03 lakh bales, including 66 lakh bales with textile mills and 100.03 lakh bales with CCI, ginners, traders and other holders.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)