The growth of the country is projected to moderate from a 5.0 per cent expansion last year. Heightened uncertainty in the global trade system will likely affect global demand and China’s export performance. Growth will further moderate to 4.3 per cent next year, as per ADB’s report titled Asian Development Outlook April 2025.
“The increased policy support should help counteract the property market slowdown and deceleration of export growth as the proposed new US tariffs take effect,” said Safdar Parvez, ADB country director for China. “The policy focus on boosting household consumption should improve domestic demand, which is much needed to sustain GDP growth of China.”
Fiscal expansion will likely bolster investment, pushing up its contribution to growth. The expansionary fiscal policy will prioritise national strategic projects, advanced manufacturing, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, added the report.
Inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 0.4 per cent this year and 0.7 per cent in 2026, with weak private demand likely keeping inflation subdued. Rising industrial output should further mitigate inflationary pressures in 2025 and 2026.
The outlook faces predominantly downside risks, with the shifting US trade stance and newly imposed tariffs heightening uncertainty for both China and the global economy.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)
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