China's LEI drops again, CEI shows modest gain in February: TCB

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China dipped by 0.3 per cent in February to 149.8 (2016=100), following a similar drop in January. The latest data point marks a persistent decline, with the LEI falling by 1.6 per cent over the six months from August 2024 to February 2025 — a slightly sharper contraction than the 1.3 per cent decline seen in the preceding six-month period.

“The China LEI fell slightly in February, continuing a near 3-year long downtrend. All non-financial components, save the 5000 Industrial Enterprises profitability survey, contributed to the decline of the Index. Anemic consumer confidence remained the main source of weakness in the LEI. Furthermore, the negative readings of the six-month and annual growth rates of the LEI suggest continued downside risks to economic growth in the near term,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate, at The Conference Board.

In contrast, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) edged up by 0.1 per cent in February to 151.2, partially recovering from a 1.1 per cent drop in January. Over the six-month period to February 2025, the CEI rose by 0.7 per cent, though this growth rate is down from the 1.1 per cent expansion recorded in the previous period, the TCB said in a release.

“Additionally, high trade tensions between the US and China may further dampen growth ahead. All-in-all, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.7 per cent in 2025, which would be the second consecutive yearly decline in growth, after 5.4 per cent expansion in 2023 and 5.0 per cent in 2024,” Ian added.

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ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)