China’s exports rose by 6.5 per cent y-o-y in the third quarter, slightly higher than the 6.0 per cent in the second quarter. The steep decline in shipments to the US – 27.3 per cent y-o-y – was outweighed by robust demand from the ASEAN, Africa, EU and Latin American markets.
Container rates fell sharply in the third quarter, with the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index down by 52 per cent y-o-y and the China Containerised Freight Index by 39 per cent y-o-y on vessel oversupply and soft US-bound demand. Capacity redeployments have yet to absorb excess tonnage.
Fitch believes the one-year China-US agreement to pause tariff hikes helps alleviate near-term pressure and could support throughput flows through 2026, but short-term upside hinges on stable US demand and resilient intra-Asia flows. Diversified Chinese ports would be better positioned to absorb any volatility. That said, risks remain elevated given the temporary pause and the absence of a long-term resolution. A resumption of tariffs or weaker global demand could quickly cap throughput gains.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)
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