Meanwhile, Central European countries such as Germany, Austria, and Poland expect tariffs in the 15 to 20 per cent range, while Italy, Sweden, and Bulgaria anticipate lower rates of 10 to 15 per cent, ifo institute said on its website.
In contrast, experts from non-EU European nations expect significantly lower tariffs on US imports. Swiss and Norwegian experts anticipate rates of five to ten per cent, while their British counterparts expect a 12 per cent tariff. On the other hand, US experts project a 19 per cent average tariff on EU imports to the United States.
When asked about their normative views—what tariffs should be by the end of 2025—European experts generally advocate much lower rates. The EU average for desired tariffs on US imports stands at 12.8 per cent, with France, Portugal, and Spain still showing higher-than-average preferences (10–20 per cent), but lower than their expected figures, the survey revealed.
Germany, Austria, Italy, Finland, and Sweden prefer even more moderate rates, ranging from five to 15 per cent. Notably, experts from Switzerland are the only group whose expectations and normative assessments closely align.
US experts favoured even lower tariff levels on EU imports, advocating a rate of just three per cent—far below the levels European experts propose for US goods.
The survey also highlighted that expectations for general tariffs on all imports (regardless of origin) are lower and less varied than for US-specific imports. EU experts expect average general tariffs to stand at 13.1 per cent by the end of 2025, with most countries—including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—expecting rates in the 10 to 15 per cent range. Romania again stands out with a projection of 20 to 25 per cent.
On the normative side, EU experts believe that ideal general tariffs should be around 9.2 per cent, reflecting a broader preference for lower trade barriers. Most assessments fall in the five to 15 per cent range, indicating that experts largely disapprove of the expected protectionist trends.
The findings underscored a consistent theme: across both US-specific and general tariffs, economic experts in Europe advocate lower rates than they expect will be enacted, particularly in relation to US imports. The gap between expected and desired tariffs is notably wider for US-specific trade, suggesting greater concern over escalating trade tensions with the United States.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)
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