EU–US deal stabilises trade outlook despite concerns: Survey

Despite lingering pessimism, the July EU-US Framework Agreement is seen as having helped stabilise the outlook for transatlantic trade and investment, a new survey of American companies in Europe has shown.

Nearly half (46 per cent) of respondents still expect the relationship to worsen, but this is down sharply from 89 per cent in the last survey, conducted in January 2025, American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU) said in a release.

Following the Turnberry deal, more companies foresee stability (33 per cent, up from 9 per cent), suggesting the deal is viewed as having averted further deterioration in EU-US relations. Optimism has also risen tenfold, with 21 per cent anticipating improvement, compared with 2 per cent in January.

The results contrast with the political debate surrounding the Framework Agreement, which has been marked by vocal opposition in the European Parliament and in certain EU Member States. 

While businesses’ view of transatlantic relations has softened, their concerns over how EU and US policies are shaping the business climate in Europe remain acute. A majority (56 per cent) anticipate a negative effect from EU policies on their European operations over the coming years, up slightly from 52 per cent in the last survey.

Meanwhile, 31 per cent expect EU policies to have a ‘somewhat positive’ impact on their European operations. For US policies, 60 per cent predict a negative impact on their European operations, down from 67 per cent previously, while positive sentiment rose from 3 per cent to 13 per cent.

Against this backdrop, businesses’ priorities for implementation of the Framework Agreement are clear. Half of the respondents identified timely tariff reductions as their top priority for implementing the deal. Addressing non-tariff barriers, including those stemming from regulations highlighted in the Joint Statement (eg the EU Deforestation Regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive), and strengthening regulatory cooperation and mutual recognition completed the top three. 

Looking ahead, companies remain consistent in their expectations for the next stage of EU–US cooperation. As in January, companies call for EU and US policymakers to reduce regulatory burdens, enhance their engagement with the business community and continue to lower tariffs across more sectors. 

“Much of the debate in Brussels and EU capitals has focused on what is wrong with the Framework Agreement. Yet the view among businesses – those actually experiencing the day-to-day realities of the transatlantic marketplace – is different. They see it as having averted unprecedented damage to transatlantic trade and investment, even as real concerns about the policy environment remain,” said Malte Lohan, CEO, AmCham EU.  

“While it feels like so much has changed in EU-US relations since the start of the year, what our members are calling for has stayed the same: lower tariffs and a reduced regulatory burden. This period of steadier relations should not be wasted. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic must use this opportunity to lock in predictability so businesses can plan and invest with confidence,” Lohan added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)