Euro area LEI down 0.2% in November as outlook remains cautious

In contrast, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, edged up 0.1 per cent in November to 110, matching the increase seen in October. On a six-month basis, the CEI rose 0.3 per cent from May to November 2025, continuing the growth of 0.4 per cent recorded between November 2024 and May 2025, TCB said in a press release.

“The euro area LEI declined on a month-on-month and six-month moving average basis in November,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate, at The Conference Board. “Non-financial components fuelled the decline in the LEI. Consumer expectations were once again the primary driver of weakness, while volume of order books and expected demand in the service sector remained subdued. Negative contributions from these components offset gains from financial components, which continued to show resilience.”

“The 6-month growth rate of the Euro Area LEI, while still negative, has been improving, signalling dissipating pressure on real activity,” added Brennan. “Manufacturing output is expected to remain challenged amid tariff-related headwinds, growing competitiveness from other economies like China, and structural changes. However, private consumption and government expenditures are expected to support growth due to a resilient labour market and expansionary fiscal policies, respectively. Taken altogether, after modest expansion in Q3, The Conference Board still expects annual real GDP growth in the euro area to reach 1 per cent in 2025 and accelerate to 1.2 per cent in 2026.”

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)