Euro area LEI falls again in Aug, signals ongoing weakness: TCB

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the euro area was unchanged in August 2025 at 109.7, after ticking up by 0.1 per cent in July (revised upward from no change reported in past release). Overall, the CEI rose by 0.2 per cent from February to August 2025, at a more modest pace than the 0.4 per cent gain from August 2024 to February 2025, TCB said in a press release.

“The euro area LEI continued to decline in August. As in previous months, non-financial components were the main drag on the Index. Consumer expectations for the general economic situation weakened further while orders and business expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors remained depressed. Improvement in the yield spread and the systemic stress composite indicator mitigated the decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board.

“The 6-month growth rate of the LEI became more negative, after two consecutive months of improvements, signalling persisting headwinds ahead. However, after a weak Q2, the Conference Board Economic expects activity in the euro area to pick up in Q3 and beyond driven by reduced uncertainty on the implementation of US tariffs. Overall, The Conference Board currently expects GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025,” added Guichard.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)