Germany's LEI steady at 87.7 in June; CEI dips slightly

The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged in June 2025 at 87.7 (2016=100), following a 0.9 per cent rise in May. Over the first half (H1) of 2025, the LEI grew 0.6 per cent, marking a recovery from the 0.3 per cent contraction recorded in the second half of 2024, TCB said in a release.

The LEI, which is designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle by around seven months, is compiled from seven indicators including new orders for investment goods, yield spreads, consumer confidence, inventory change, residential construction orders, stock prices, and enterprises and property income.

“The LEI for Germany was flat in June after a strong increase in May. A large positive contribution from the yield spread was offset by mild negative contributions from new residential construction orders and stock prices, which eased in June, following May’s rally. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany—measuring current economic conditions—fell by 0.1 per cent in June to 103.4 (2016=100), following a similar decline in May. For the first half of 2025, the CEI registered a modest 0.1 per cent increase, after shrinking 0.4 per cent in the previous six-month period. The CEI is closely correlated with real GDP and comprises industrial production, employment, retail trade, and manufacturing sales.

“While the euphoria around the announced fiscal stimulus plan subsided in June, it should boost the economic outlook going forward. In addition, higher tariffs on exports to the US will likely weigh on growth but reduced uncertainty following the US-EU deal could help mitigate the impact. Overall, despite the slight contraction in Q2, the Conference Board currently projects positive, even if sluggish, real GDP growth in Germany of about ½ per cent in 2025.” Li added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)