Global trade set to surpass $35 trn in 2025: UNCTAD

Global trade is poised to exceed $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to UNCTAD’s final Global Trade Update of the year. The report shows that trade continued expanding through the second half of the year despite geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand.

Between July and September, global trade rose 2.5 per cent versus the previous quarter, driven by nearly 2 per cent growth in goods and 4 per cent in services.

Growth is expected to continue in the final quarter, albeit at a slower pace, with goods forecast to rise 0.5 per cent and services 2 per cent. If these projections materialise, goods trade would add about $1.5 trillion this year and services around $750 billion, aligning with an overall seven per cent annual increase.

A major shift emerged in pricing trends. After two quarters where rising prices inflated trade values, goods prices are now expected to decline. This means the late-2025 expansion stems from higher shipment volumes rather than cost increases, signalling stable demand as inflation eases.

Regionally, East Asia, Africa and South–South trade led the gains. East Asia posted the strongest export growth at nine per cent, underpinned by a 10 per cent jump in intra-regional trade. Africa saw imports rise 10 per cent and exports six per cent, while South–South trade expanded eight per cent, highlighting deeper links among developing countries.

China and the Republic of Korea were key drivers in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa supported growth in South America and Africa.

Manufacturing grew 10 per cent over the year. Overall, 2025 marked a year of recovery for global trade after the stagnation seen in 2023–2024. However, UNCTAD said that risks remain elevated. Imbalances persist, and friendshoring and nearshoring trends have strengthened, reshaping trading relationships.

For 2026, the agency forecasts weaker growth as slowing global activity, rising debt burdens, higher trade costs and ongoing uncertainty weigh on performance.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)