Higher US tariffs may dent India's growth by 30 bps in FY26: Barclays

If the US tariff gets implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, the British multinational bank estimates.

This is sharply higher than both the pre 'liberation day' tariff rate of 2.7 per cent and the 90-day pause tariff rate of 11.6 per cent. In contrast, India's import tariff on US goods is lower, at 11.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, it noted.

“We expect final tariffs on India to settle in lower than the announced 25 per cent, as India and the US continue with trade deal talks," it said.

As India is diversifying its sources of oil supply, if the additional 'penalty' threat materialises, Barclays expects Indian refiners to pivot towards alternate suppliers, especially as the discount on imports of Russian oil has already narrowed, a news agency reported.

To diversify its export base, India is displaying a renewed vigour to sign free-trade agreements with other countries and regions, Barclays added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)