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ICE cotton futures hit six-month low amid strong dollar, fast harvest

08 Oct '25
3 min read
ICE cotton futures hit six-month low amid strong dollar, fast harvest
Pic: Shutterstock.com

Insights

  • ICE cotton futures hit a six-month low as a stronger US dollar and rapid US harvesting drove prices lower.
  • December futures fell to 64.46 cents per pound, with trading volume surging amid speculative selling.
  • Market sentiment remains weak, pressured by ongoing harvest progress, delayed USDA data, and reduced global export competitiveness.
ICE cotton futures witnessed a steep decline yesterday, with US cotton prices hitting their lowest level in six months. A stronger US dollar discouraged buying in the previous session, while the rapid pace of US cotton harvesting added further pressure to the market.

ICE December cotton futures settled at 64.46 cents per pound, down 0.68 cents or 1.04 per cent. The contract touched an intraday of 64.40 cents, the lowest level since early April 2025. March 2026 contracts lost 0.71 cent to reach 66.38 cents, May 2026 were down 0.69 cent to 67.74 cents, and July 2026 were down 0.64 cent to 68.90 cents. Other contracts settled 15-68 points lower.

The October 2025 contract closed at 62.02 with zero open interest, showing no active positions and indicating potential for a lower path for December. Trading volume rose sharply to 45,016 contracts, up from 27,524 the previous day, signalling stronger speculative and selling activity. ICE deliverable stocks stood at 17,891 bales, unchanged from the prior day.

The US dollar index climbed 0.28 per cent, nearing a two-month high, reducing global competitiveness of US cotton exports. International crude oil prices remained stable as investors weighed OPEC+’s modest November production increase against signs of a global supply glut.

Market sentiment remained weak due to favourable harvest weather, trade tensions, and demand uncertainty in the textile sector.

The US government shutdown entered its seventh day, delaying the release of key USDA reports, including export sales and global supply-demand estimates. The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, normally published on Thursday, was postponed, while the monthly WASDE report may also be delayed if the shutdown continues.

Analysts said the lack of official data is forcing investors to rely on secondary and unofficial information to gauge cotton demand and predict Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Farmers are going all-in on harvesting right now, which is weighing on prices. The higher dollar is also pressuring the market.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) reported that as of October 4, 2025, the country’s 2024-25 cotton harvest was 99.8 per cent complete, up from 99.2 per cent the previous week, matching last year’s 100 per cent and the five-year average of 100 per cent.

In related markets, CBOT soybean futures rebounded after two days of losses on technical and seasonal buying.

Overall, cotton futures remained under pressure amid harvest activity, strong dollar, and delayed government data.

Currently, ICE cotton for December 2025 was traded at 64.43 cents per pound (down 0.03 cent), cash cotton at 61.96 cents (down 0.68 cent), the October 2025 contract at 62.02 cents (down 0.68 cent), the March 2026 contract at 66.35 cents (down 0.03 cent), the May 2026 contract at 67.70 cents (down 0.04 cent) and the July 2026 contract at 68.73 cents (down  0.17 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)

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