ICE cotton remains steady as market awaits Fed rate decision

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 66.84 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.01 cent. Market analysts noted that sentiment is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, with a potential rate cut seen as a positive outcome that could encourage companies in the cotton industry.

Market pricing indicates a probability of more than 96 per cent for a 25-basis point rate cut at this week’s meeting, with only a small chance of a larger 50-basis point cut. The dollar weakened across the board as investors positioned for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the September Global Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, released on Friday, showed that US cotton consumption, exports, and ending stocks for 2025-26 remained unchanged from the previous month. The market is still digesting the data, which overall were considered relatively neutral.

According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly crop progress report, as of the week ending September 14, 2025, the US cotton harvest rate was 9 per cent compared to 8 per cent the previous week, 10 per cent during the same period last year, and a 5-year average of 8 per cent. The boll opening rate stood at 50 per cent, up from 40 per cent the previous week, against 53 per cent last year and the 5-year average of 49 per cent.

In other agricultural markets, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures settled lower, retreating from a two-week high as traders cited seasonal harvest pressure and demand concerns.

Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators increased their net short positions in ICE cotton futures and options by 2,925 contracts to 74,645 contracts in the week ending September 9, 2025.

Currently, ICE cotton for December 2025 was traded at 66.73 cents per pound (down 0.11 cent), cash cotton at 64.17 cents (up 0.23 cent), the October 2025 contract at 65.42 cents (up 0.23 cent), the March 2026 contract at 68.66 cents (down 0.09 cent), the May 2026 contract at 70.01 cents (down 0.08 cent) and the July 2026 contract at 70.87 cents (down 0.08 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)