Imports to grow twice as fast as exports in FY26, RBI survey shows

"Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, during [fiscal] 2025-26," the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.

The RBI conducted the 95^th survey of professional forecasters on macroeconomic indicators.

In FY27, merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9 per cent and imports by 6 per cent, all in US dollar terms, the survey noted.

Because of this, the country’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stand at 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices for FY26. For FY27, the CAD is projected to rise slightly to 0.9 per cent.

The real GDP is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY26 and by 6.7 per cent in FY27, the survey revealed.

Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in these two fiscals respectively.

Annual headline consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation is expected at 3.1 per cent in FY26 and rise to 4.4 per cent in FY27.

CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants, fuel and electricity is expected at 4.4 per cent in the second quarter of FY26. It is projected to stay between 4.3-4.5 per cent in the following quarters.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)