India's GDP growth to hit ~6.8% in 2024, 6.2% in 2025: US think tank

The US think tank’s leading economic index (LEI) for India declined by 0.1 per cent in September this year to 159 following a downwardly revised flat reading in August. The LEI growth rate over the six-month period from March to September 2024 slowed to 1.1 per cent, less than half the 2.7-per cent growth from September 2023 to March 2024.

Its coincident economic index (CEI) for the country fell significantly by 2.9 per cent in September this year to 145.4 after falling by 0.7 per cent in August. The index rose by 1.9 per cent from March to September 2024, more than reversing the contraction of 1.5 per cent over the previous six months.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, while the CEI offers an indication of the current state of the economy.

“A strong negative contribution from PMI [purchasing managers’ index] in services business activity, followed by the real effective exchange rate and merchandise exports, narrowly overturned positive contributions, largely from SENSEX stock prices. The six-month and annual growth rates of the LEI have been cooling over recent months, pointing towards softening through the end of 2024 and persisting into early 2025,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at the think tank, in a release.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)