India's YoY growth in economic activity rises to 13.3% in Oct: ICRA

Although the uptick was broad based with 11 of the 16 constituent indicators seeing an improvement in their YoY performance, the improvement was largely driven by a shift in the festive calendar this year compared to last year that obfuscates YoY comparisons in October and November, thereby making it more meaningful to look at the average YoY growth performance for these months, India’s rating agency ICRA said in a note.

The month-on-month (MoM) uptick was relatively higher in October compared to the same month in 2018, when the festive season had begun around the same time as this year. The monitor surged by 6.3 per cent on a MoM basis in October compared to 5.3 per cent in the same month in 2018.

This suggests that economic activity remained robust, aided by pre festive stocking and the onset of festive demand in the second half of the month, ICRA said.

The early trends for November 2023 are mixed.

The YoY electricity demand growth has moderated to 8.8 per cent in November 1-15 this year from 20.9 per cent in October amid cooling in temperature levels as well as an unfavourable base.

As many as eight of the 14 non-financial indicators saw a stronger MoM performance in October compared to the same month in 2018, including diesel consumption and ports cargo traffic. In contrast, six indicators, including, rail freight, electricity generation and goods and services tax e-way bills, recorded a weaker sequential performance in October compared to the same month in 2018.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)