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Indian economic recovery broadens in Q3 FY22, durability elusive: ICRA

24 Jan '22
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

India’s economic activity picked up in December last year with 10 of the 15 lead indicators registering a year-on-year (YoY) improvement in that month relative to November, even as the pace of expansion largely trailed the levels seen in October 2021, according to ICRA Research. The YoY performance of nine of the 15 indicators in December trailed the growth seen in October.

Moreover, the quarterly data suggests a modest broad-basing of the recovery in the third quarter (Q3) of fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) relative to Q2, when compared to respective pre-COVID volumes.

However, the onset of the third  COVID wave  has  triggered state-wise  restrictions,  which have expectedly interrupted the momentum  in the ongoing month, reiterating that the recovery is yet to attain durability, ICRA Research said in a note.

Retail payments rose to all-time highs in December, while the monthly mobility for retail and recreation rose above the level of baseline period for the first time since the onset of COVID-19.

Ports cargo traffic recorded a turnaround, printing above their pre-COVID volumes in Q3, suggesting a modest broad-basing of the economic recovery. 

Notwithstanding heightened uncertainty triggered by the omicron variant, non-oil merchandise exports (in US dollar terms) surged to a record-high of $31.9 billion in December2021, with the pace of YoY expansion rebounding to 28.3 per cent in that month (plus 6 per cent in December2020) from 18.2 per cent in November 2021 (plus 0.5 per cent in November 2020).

Moreover, such exports expanded by 22.4 per cent MoM in December2021, and exceeded the pre-COVID level of December 2019 by a sharp 36 per cent, partly reflecting the elevated commodity prices.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)

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