Indian economy largely resilient, Q4 FY25 GDP may be 6.4-6.5%: SBI

Initial SBI estimates show the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) could be 6.4-6.5 per cent as the bank’s ‘nowcasting model’ has captured slight moderation in economic activities.

“Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 [FY25] estimates in the upcoming data release by NSO [National Statistics Office], we expect FY25 GDP to stand at 6.3 per cent,” noted the newsletter.

Early and better Monsoon forecasts could rejuvenate consumer confidence, investments and demand, as corporate India sees sublime growth in revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBIDTA).

The sharp downward revisions being penciled in global growth forecasts on account of trade upheavals, and policy uncertainties in response seem to have little weathering effects on the domestic growth juggernaut in perpetual motion, the newsletter noted.

A slowdown in current household inflation expectations encourages higher discretionary spending and drives demand-led growth, while status quo in consumer confidence suggests that households are uncertain about the global developments and economic prospects.

Corporate gross value added of the India corporate sector by initial trend suggests year-on-year moderation in Q4 FY25 to 8.7 per cent, while EBIDTA margin moderated by around 74 basis points.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)