LEI for China declines by 0.8% in October 2025

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China ticked up by 0.1 per cent in October 2025 to 156.6 (2016=100), after expanding by 0.3 per cent in September. Overall, the CEI increased by 2.9 per cent over the six-month period from April to October 2025, an improvement from a 0.6 per cent growth observed over the previous six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025. 

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

“The China LEI declined in October, continuing its downward trend,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate, at The Conference Board. “Weakness was broad-based across components in October, with 6 of 8 declining. Consumer confidence continued to be the primary drag on the index, while building construction, and the logistics prosperity index also recorded notable negative contributions. Labour demand was the only component to rise, posting a marginal increase. With the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and with the 6-month diffusion falling below 50, the recession signal went off again in October. On the one hand, the supply-side of the economy (eg. Industrial Value Added and Manufacturing PMIs) has shown resilience. On the other hand, the demand-side has deteriorated with moderating retail sales and low consumer expectations. Nonetheless, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to be 5.0 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent in 2026.”

ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)