The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2011/12 indicate that the gap between foreign consumption and production is projected to decrease significantly this season and fall below 5 million bales for the first time since 2004/05.
With limited growth predicted for the global economy, foreign cotton consumption is forecast to be stagnant in 2011/12. In comparison, higher prices last season encouraged increased cotton plantings around the world and, as a result, foreign cotton production is forecast to expand 11 percent above 2010/11.
Based on these latest estimates, the consumption/production gap is expected to decline to 3 million bales in 2011/12, a significant reduction from 2 years ago when the gap exceeded 26 million bales. With total foreign supplies rising to their highest in 4 years, increased export competition is expected. Consequently, 2011/12 U.S. cotton exports are projected to account for the lowest share of global trade in over a decade—31.5 percent.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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