Rising stocks-to-use will put further downward pressure on already declining prices for the fiber. China's retention of its current reserve stocks and the expected additions to end-of-year reserves will be crucial to limiting price declines in 2012/13.
China's 2012/13 ending stocks are forecast at 28.1 million bales, up 14 percent from a year earlier, raising the country's share of global ending stocks to 37 percent.
Ending stocks in India and Pakistan in 2012/13 are forecast to rise 6 percent and 21 percent from a year ago, to 9.5 million bales and 3.9 million bales, respectively. In Australia, 2012/13 ending stocks are forecast at 3.8 million bales, up 9 percent from the previous year.
Brazil's 2012/13 ending stocks are forecast to decline 5 percent from a year earlier to 8.3 billion bales, due mainly to lower expected production.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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