For 2007, ADO Update forecasts growth of 7.1 percent for developing Asia, up marginally from the 7.0 percent forecast in April. The easing from 2006 growth is anticipated based on expected slower demand from industrial countries and continuing high oil prices.
The projection for East Asia for 2006 has been revised upward to 8.2 percent from 7.7 percent in April, driven mainly by the faster expansion estimated for PRC that in part influenced upgrades for Hong Kong, China and Mongolia.
Growth in South Asia in 2006 is projected at 7.5 percent, up from 7.3 percent forecast in April. Since 2002 South Asian growth has averaged 7.7 percent, almost matching that of East Asia and two percentage points above growth in Southeast Asia.
Increasingly vibrant manufacturing activities in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan are lifting exports, which contributed to some upgrading of growth estimates in 2006.
In Southeast Asia, the forecast has been downgraded marginally to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in April. Political uncertainty and a postponement of large infrastructure projects in Thailand, and slowing consumer spending in Malaysia have crimped growth from the April estimates for the two countries.
ADO Update includes a section on trade issues that may have implications for the longer term, as well as a theme chapter on developing Asia's rising influence in world commodity markets.
“The outlook for Asian growth is quite positive as both domestic and external conditions remain favorable,” Mr. Ali said. “The region should act now to lay defenses against potential risks and ensure the region's rapid growth is sustained.”
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