These are dangerous times for the world economy. Rising demand coupled with the prospect of growing supply uncertainty in the Middle East is driving the price of oil towards a $100 a barrel.
At present, the core countries of the Eurozone are growing slightly faster than last year, but their recovery is still uncertain. Buoyant demand in the United States continues to deliver growth, which in turn continues to keep trade growing in the OECD economies.
But just as US domestic demand in the 1990s was driven by stock market exuberance, today it is driven by rising house prices.
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