As reported by the Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index (CPI) for Germany is expected to rise 1.0 percent in September 2006 – based on the results available from six Länder – compared with September 2005 (August 2006: +1.7 percent).
This will have been the lowest rate of increase since February 2004 (+0.9 percent). Compared with the preceding month, the rate of change will be –0.4 percent.
The price decrease on the preceding month and the low year-on-year rate of price increase are mainly due to the price trends for heating oil and motor fuels.
For heating oil, the prices in the six Länder used for the estimation were by between 3.6 percent and 5.2 percent lower than a month earlier and by between 0.1 percent and 5.6 percent lower than a year earlier.
For motor fuels, the prices were down between 7.2 percent and 9.2 percent on a month earlier and between 6.1 percent and 8.7 percent on a year earlier. Prices of package holidays and holiday homes showed a seasonal decrease, too, on the previous month.
The harmonised consumer price index for Germany (HICP), which is calculated for European purposes, will presumably rise 1.1 percent in September 2006 compared with September 2005 (August 2006: +1.8 percent). Compared with the preceding month, the index will decrease by 0.4 percent.
The final results for September 2006 will be available around mid-October 2006. Since the estimation was first performed in February 2003 (on base 2000), the estimate was confirmed by the final result in 29 cases. In 14 cases, the rate of change was by 0.1 percent below or above the final result.
Federal Statistical Office, Germany
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