The supply/demand implications for price outlook can be seen in this seasonal average price chart, where prices in stable years tend to weaken during the late October-December harvest period.
That being the case, the same seasonal average patterns suggest the best opportunity for higher old crop futures is in the March-June period.
The regional weather, crop, and harvest situations are monitored by numerous information sources, e.g., in statewide weather summaries, in regional columns such as my colleague Jay Yates' South Plains Cotton Update, and in weekly reports by the USDA National Agric.
The Southeast ranges from 48 percent to 77 percent, the while the Upper Delta states are 64 percent to 81 percent complete. Updated (as of late November 12) harvest figures are available here.
Demand-side caveats ultimately involve the question of whether 2006/07 U.S. exports can keep pace with the moving target of 16.2 million bales currently projected by USDA.
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