However, this foreign production gap is still very much a moving target and a lot can happen both on the production and on the consumption side.
Even though the weather has been rather erratic this season, the crop potential seems to be well maintained for most major crops at this point, although China may find it difficult to repeat a 7.1 mio tons output, since growing conditions in some of its eastern provinces have not been ideal recently.
On the other hand, India and Pakistan may surpass the USDA estimate of 28.8 mio and 13.3 mio domestic bales, according some of our local sources.
Therefore, if these crops do not suffer any major setbacks over the next couple of months, it is possible for world cotton production to exceed the current USDA estimate of 115.79 mio bales.
When we look at world consumption, the USDA has currently a projection of 127.16 mio bales, an increase of 4.83 mio bales over last season and 11.0 mio bales more than two years ago. This may be a bit optimistic, since the recent increase in the cotton price is likely to slow the rate of mill consumption or it may lead to a higher usage of man-made fibers in the case of China, where polyester remains relatively attractive.
marketing@alchempro.com
