In contrast, 2007 production in the Delta and Southeast regions are forecast to decrease by one-third from last season. The Delta is expected to produce only 5.5 million bales of cotton in 2007, a drop of 2.7 million bales. Despite the second highest yield projected for the region, the smallest area since 1986 pulled production down to its lowest in 7 years.
Similarly, the Southeast region is expected to produce 3.5 million bales of cotton in 2007, a 1.6-million-bale reduction from 2006. The smallest area since 1994 in the Southeast reduced the crop to its smallest in 5 years.
For the West region, where upland acreage has been trending lower for several decades, planted area in 2007 was estimated at only 415,000 acres, the smallest since 1932. Despite the third highest yield on record, upland production is forecast at only 1.1 million bales for the region, the smallest since 1946.
The ELS crop, in contrast, is projected at a record in 2007. The crop continues to be dominated by California, where over 90 percent of the ELS cotton is produced. Total ELS area and yield are forecast to be the third highest on record.
Based on the August forecast, total area planted to cotton in 2007 is estimated at about 11.1 million acres with harvested area estimated at 10.6 million acres, 2.1 million below last season. The national yield is estimated at 783 pounds per harvested acre, close to the 5-year average. (See table 11 for production breakdowns by State.)
U.S. cotton crop development in early August continues to run behind 2006 and the 5-year average. As of August 5th, 70 percent of the U.S. cotton area was setting bolls, compared with 81 and 79 percent, respectively, for last year and the 2002-06 average. Meanwhile, the reporting of bolls opening has just begun, with about half of the States having reported bolls open.
Cotton Council International
marketing@alchempro.com
