World cotton production is expected to decline by 2% in 2007/08 to 26.1 million tons, due to lower cotton area. World cotton mill use is forecast up by 3% to 27.5 million tons. As a result world ending stocks are expected to decline by 11% to 11.4 million tons.
World cotton imports are forecast up by 10% to 9.1 million tons in 2007/08 due to an expected rebound in Chinese imports to 3.5 million tons. Exports from the United States, India, and Brazil are expected to increase significantly. However, exports from Uzbekistan, the African Franc Zone and Australia are expected to decline, mainly because of an expected drop in production.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 69 cents per pound in 2007/08, 10 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase is the result of an expected significant decrease in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08.
Preliminary projections for 2008/09 suggest an increase in world production to 27.1 million tons and in world mill use to 27.8 million tons. Consequently, world ending stocks are expected to decline further in 2008/09, to 10.6 million tons.
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International Cotton Advisory Committee
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