The AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee has released an updated forecast of 395 million kg greasy for the 2007/08 season, unchanged from its September forecast.
The forecast is consistent with the season-to-date trend in available industry statistics, such as AWTA test volumes and AWEX's brand analysis, and largely reflects the decline in sheep numbers leading into the 2007/08 season.
The Committee expects the number of sheep and lambs shorn in 2007/08 to be 92 million head, 9% lower year-on-year.
“In response to the 2006 drought, Australian farmers reduced sheep numbers, which was evident in the 12% increase in sheep slaughterings in the 2006/07 season and a record lamb turn-off” said Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson.
For fleece weights, some improvement in seasonal conditions in some parts of Australia has occurred, with the most notable improvement in fleece weights expected to come from Victoria.
“Historically, in the season following a drought, fleece weights rebound as seasonal conditions return to normal. However, except for Victoria, this has not happened in other states, which means the average national fleece weight in the 2007/08 season is only expected to increase by 2% compared with the 2006/07 season” said Mr Pattinson.
Looking beyond the current season, with recent rains helping to improve the seasonal outlook and higher wool prices, the wool production outlook for the 2008/09 season is more optimistic. The committee will release its first forecast for the 2008/09 season in March 2008.
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