With the June revisions, U.S. ending stocks for 2008/09 are currently forecast at 5.4 million bales, about half the level of the beginning stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio is also projected to fall significantly from 55 percent in 2007/08 to 28 percent in 2008/09. With stocks following the dramatic decline in forecast production in 2008/09, farm prices are expected to increase.
The initial projection, since the repeal of a nearly 8-decade-long ban on publishing cotton price forecasts, indicates that upland farm prices are expected to rise from the current season; at the midpoint of the range (65 cents), cotton prices would be at their highest in over a decade. For additional information and analysis, see the Highlight section on USDA's cotton price forecasting in this publication.
Cotton Council International
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