Steady, slower growth in US transportation in 2026: S&P Global Ratings

The rating agency believes US gross domestic product (GDP) growth, projected at 2 per cent for 2026 and 1.9 per cent for 2027, will provide a solid foundation for steady activity across most domestic transportation infrastructure asset classes, including maritime container volumes, tolled transactions, and mass transit ridership.

Mass transit ridership remains below pre-pandemic levels with a full recovery unlikely in the next two-to-three years, it noted.

It estimates average growth rates in 2026 and 2027 at 4.5 per cent for transit ridership, 2.4 per cent for port container traffic and 3 per cent for tolled transactions.

For its 2026 activity estimates, it assumes that toll roads will continue to attract and benefit from passenger and commercial vehicle growth trends.

Port container volumes, measured by twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), are likely to decline slightly in 2025 and 2026, based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, before resuming a growth trend in 2027.

US import duties are in place for the foreseeable future, but a series of lightweight trade deals based on tariff concessions in return for purchase and investment commitments will provide an offset.

Although port volumes generally move in line with the broader U.S. economy, tariffs on foreign goods are dampening demand. S&P Global Ratings' economists forecast slower, but still positive, consumer spending growth over the near term. It expects this will lead to spillover in the form of reduced throughput at US container ports.

Ports could be stressed on both sides, as US consumers reduce demand for imports and as other countries implement retaliatory trade policies in response to higher US tariffs.

However, if the administration’s tariff policies are overturned by the US Supreme Court, another period of front-running ahead of changing trade policy and an associated uptick in port container volumes could be witnessed.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)