The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world that had been announced, postponed and then finally enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect this week.
The ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projected that the month surged to 2.3 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of this month’s tariffs. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3 per cent from June and down just 0.5 per cent YoY, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the NRF and Hackett Associates.
August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 5 per cent YoY, and September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5 per cent YoY. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9 per cent YoY; and November at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1 per cent for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3 per cent YoY.
While the falling aggregate totals in September through December are related to pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year due to tariffs, the large YoY percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.
The first half of 2025 totalled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6 per cent YoY. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6 per cent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024, added the report.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million TEU—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7 per cent from May but down 8.4 per cent YoY.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by US importers that will result in higher prices for US consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”
“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” said Ben Hackett, founder at Hackett Associates. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, US exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)
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