The Conference Board LEI for Germany falls in Nov 2023

The LEI contracted by 3.2 per cent in the six-month period from May to November last year, an accelerated rate of decline compared to the 0.2-per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, the US-based think tank said in a release.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.

The think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country declined by 0.3 per cent in November last year to 103.8 after ticking up by 0.1 per cent in October. The CEI fell by 0.7 per cent between May and November, more than reversing a 0.4-per cent increase over the previous six-month period.

The CCI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

“The LEI for Germany declined for a fifth consecutive month in November,” said Allen Li, asssociate economist at the think tank.

“Most components of the Germany LEI were little changed or negative in the month, except stock prices. The LEI trended downward for most of 2023 and continues to signal possible recession ahead. The Conference Board currently estimates Germany’s real GDP to contract by 0.3 per cent year-over-year in 2023, but possibly improve to a modest 0.2 per cent growth rate in 2024,” he added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)