US consumer sentiment plunges to seven-month low in November

The Expectations Index, measuring consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and employment, fell even more sharply, down 8.6 points to 63.2. Notably, this index has remained below 80 for ten straight months, a level typically associated with signalling a potential recession.

Dana M Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board said consumer confidence “tumbled in November to its lowest level since April.” She added that the labour market differential, the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus those saying jobs are “hard to get” also fell again in November, following a brief pause in its year-to-date downward trend in October.

Consumers grew notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months ahead, mid-2026 expectations for labour market conditions remained distinctly negative, and expectations for higher household incomes dropped sharply after six consecutive months of strong readings.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey shows that consumers’ open-ended responses consistently pointed to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and political matters, with growing references to the federal government shutdown.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to strengthen among consumers under 35, while sentiment among those aged 35 and above declined, with individuals 55 and older remaining the most pessimistic group this year.

Across income categories, confidence weakened for nearly all groups after several months of improvement. The only exception was consumers earning under $15,000, whose confidence rose in November, though they remained the least optimistic of all income brackets. Confidence also declined across the political spectrum, with the steepest drop reported among independent voters.

Consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months stayed elevated in November, with the median estimate increasing to 4.8 per cent. The proportion expecting higher interest rates eased to around 50 per cent, while fewer people anticipated rate cuts after months of rising optimism. Expectations for stock prices over the next year remained generally positive, though slightly softer than in October. At the same time, consumers grew more convinced that a US recession was likely in the coming year.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (CG)