US employment index steady in June amid mixed signals: TCB

The Conference Board (TCB) Employment Trends Index (ETI) remained unchanged in June at 107.83, holding steady from May’s upwardly revised reading.

While some indicators pointed to resilience, others reflected persistent labour market uncertainty. Five of the index's eight components contributed negatively in June, including job openings, real manufacturing and trade sales, industrial production, initial jobless claims, and the number of temporary-help employees hired. Notably, employment in the temporary-help sector dropped by 2,600 in June—marking declines in five of the past six months, TCB said in a release.

“The June ETI underscored that the US labour market remains stable. Though ongoing uncertainty continues to temper consumer and business confidence,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board.

Conversely, the ETI drew positive contributions from indicators such as the percentage of firms reporting unfilled positions, which climbed to 36 per cent in June from 34 per cent in May, though still slightly below the 2024 average of 37.5 per cent. The ratio of involuntary part-time workers also improved, falling to 16.5 per cent from 17 per cent. Additionally, the share of consumers saying ‘jobs are hard to get’ declined slightly to 18.1 per cent.

Job openings increased to 7.8 million in May, the highest since November 2024. However, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly, and continuing claims are trending upward at a gradual pace.

The mixed picture is further complicated by softening in industrial production and trade activity, likely influenced by ongoing trade volatility and tariff uncertainties.

“The ETI is consistent with a solid June Employment Report, which showed payroll gains of 147,000 and a downtick in the unemployment rate to 4.1 per cent. We have yet to see layoffs tick up meaningfully despite the pace of hiring slowing,” added Barnes.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)