The Conference Board (TCB) Employment Trends Index (ETI) has dropped to 107.49 in May, down from a revised 108 in April.
May’s decline was driven by four components: increased initial unemployment claims, a rise in the share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get, reduced hiring in the temporary-help industry, and a likely decline in job openings.
“The ETI in May continued to slow relative to the start of 2025. But despite general tariff wariness, the ETI is currently above the 2017-19 average, suggesting that the labour market broadly remains on solid footing,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board.
Initial jobless claims reached 235,000—the highest since July 2024—while 18.6 per cent of consumers reported jobs were hard to get, marking a fourth consecutive monthly rise and matching the 2024 high, TCB said in a release.
Temporary-help services lost 20,200 jobs in May, with the sector shedding 41,600 jobs across four of the past five months. Additionally, the share of involuntary part-time workers dropped slightly to 17 per cent but remained above 2024’s average. Job openings data for April showed a brief rise, though a decline is expected in the forthcoming May report, supported by Help-Wanted-OnLine posting trends.
Meanwhile, the share of small businesses reporting jobs that are ‘not able to be filled right now’ held at 34 per cent—the lowest since September.
“While uncertainty may be weighing on business and consumer confidence, May employment data indicated that hiring continued to keep the labour market roughly in balance. However, we are beginning to see some sector erosion that could suggest emerging pressures from tariff shifts,” Barnes said.
The ETI, a composite of eight labour market indicators, suggests a shift in employment momentum, with turning points often preceding changes in job trends.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)
Receive daily prices and market insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to AlchemPro Weekly!
marketing@alchempro.com
