US ports to see first MoM import increase in January after six months

The ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in November, the most recent month with final data, representing a fall of 2.3 per cent from October and a drop of 6.5 per cent YoY, NRF said in a press release.

December volumes have yet to be reported, but are projected at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6 per cent from a year earlier. Although November and December are typically slower months, the declines also reflect unusually high imports in late 2024 due to fears of port strikes, as well as retailers pulling forward shipments in 2025 to avoid tariffs.

For 2025 as a whole, the first half totalled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent YoY, but full-year volume is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, marginally below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.

January 2026 is projected at 2.11 million TEU, marking the first MoM increase since last July as retailers bring in stock ahead of Asia’s Lunar New Year, though volumes would still be 5.3 per cent lower than a year earlier.

February is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6 per cent YoY, followed by 1.88 million TEU in March, a sharper decline of 12.4 per cent, and 2.03 million TEU in April, down 8.1 per cent. A modest recovery is expected in May, with volumes forecast to reach 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2 per cent YoY and the first annual increase since August last year.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said Jonathan Gold, vice-president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF.

He added that retailers, after a busy holiday season, are now assessing demand and supply chain needs for 2026, while hoping for greater stability in tariffs and trade policy to keep goods available at affordable prices.

“Following chronic uncertainty from increased US tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances. This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation,” added Hackett.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)