Vietnam Q4 growth seen at 7.2% as momentum eases: UOB

Looking ahead, UOB forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to ease further to about 7 per cent in 2026 as the boost from export front-loading diminishes.

The Vietnamese dong is also expected to underperform regional peers, with UOB projecting the USD-VND exchange rate at 26,300 in the first quarter of 2026, gradually strengthening to 25,900 by the end of the year, said Vietnamese media reports quoting UOB.

Suan Teck Kin, executive director of global economics and markets research at UOB, said Vietnam’s strong 2025 performance places it among ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies, supported by manufacturing strength, robust exports, improving domestic consumption and public investment. He noted that supply-chain realignments linked to US–China tensions have benefitted Vietnam, with the US now accounting for around 30 per cent of total exports.

Meanwhile, Suan cautioned that Vietnam’s heavy reliance on exports increases vulnerability to a global slowdown, particularly weaker US demand. Rising wages without corresponding productivity gains could also weigh on competitiveness, underscoring the need for continued infrastructure investment, skills development and market diversification in 2026.

Vietnam’s exports rose 16.8 per cent year on year in January–October 2025, building on the strong growth seen a year earlier. Exports to the US jumped 28.1 per cent, aided by the lowering of reciprocal tariffs to a global base rate of 10 per cent, which prompted buyers to advance orders.

Vietnam’s trade surplus narrowed to $18.7 billion by October from $22.4 billion in 2024, reflecting higher imports of raw materials and components amid strong export demand. Manufacturing output rose 10.8 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, up from 9.4 per cent a year earlier, while four consecutive PMI readings above 50 signalled continued expansion, said UOB.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)