Vietnam sees robust export growth in 2025 despite US tariffs

The effects of US reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam’s economy, especially exports, have been far milder than initial projections.

The country’s trade flows, foreign direct investment (FDI) and key macroeconomic metrics have all outperformed forecasts, HSBC’s latest report showed.

Much of this impressive expansion stemmed from front-loading of major orders in the second quarter (Q2) ahead of tariff imposition.

The country’s total trade turnover neared $840 billion by late November—up by 17.2 per cent YoY, the National Statistics Office reported. Exports reached more than $430 billion—a 16.1 per cent YoY gain that topped last year’s full-year figure.

Customs data showed exports to the United States surpassed $138.6 billion during the period—up by 27.2 per cent YoY.

HSBC flagged a major structural change in Vietnam’s US-bound exports, according to domestic media reports. Back to 2013, light manufacturing sectors like apparel, footwear and toys made up about 60 per cent of shipments, while electronics accounted for just a modest 13 per cent. Now, electronics dominate the category.

Exports by the domestic sector totaled $102.41 billion—down by 1.7 per cent and representing only 23.8 per cent of the overall figure. By contrast, exports by the foreign-invested sector were worth $327.73 billion—up by 23.1 per cent YoY and accounting for 76.2 per cent of total exports.

Vietnam closes 2025 on a strong trade note, but there’s no assurance the momentum will carry into next year amid escalating global trade risks. HSBC analysts warned that the 2026 export outlook is clouded, with potential impacts hard to gauge.

The country’s Agency of Foreign Trade cited ongoing pressures from rising protectionism, tougher green supply chain standards and a tepid global recovery. The full bite of reciprocal tariffs is likely to materialise in 2026, compounded by softer demand in key markets due to persistent inflation.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)