The revision to the US outweighs a marginal cut to the rating agency’s China growth forecast for this year—to 4.5 per cent from 4.6 per cent—and a small revision to its eurozone forecast—to 0.6 per cent from 0.7 per cent.
The growth forecast for emerging markets excluding China has been revised by 0.1 pp to 3.2 per cent, with projections raised for India, Russia and Brazil.
Fitch expects world growth in 2025 to edge up to 2.5 per cent (unchanged from before) as the eurozone finally recovers on a pick-up in real wages and consumption, but US growth slows.
The eurozone continues to stagnate, with Germany’s recession weighing on France and the rest of the bloc. China’s property collapse continues unabated.
US core inflation momentum has recently picked up and we have raised Fitch’s end-2024 US consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation forecast by 0.3 pp to 2.9 per cent. Better progress has been made in reducing core inflation in the Eurozone.
The jump in shipping costs is adding upside risks to core goods inflation, Fitch added.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)
Receive daily prices and market insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to AlchemPro Weekly!
marketing@alchempro.com
