World to move from tariff gloom to AI boom in 2026: S&P Global Ratings

The reason is tariff rates were negotiated lower (in part in response to the negative market reaction), most trading partners besides China did not retaliate and labour demand and consumer spending—at least for well-off households—remained resilient in a surprisingly large number of economies, the rating agency’s global chief economist Paul Gruenwald said in a note.

As the year passed, gloom turned to a modest boom, he observed.

Now it looks like 2025 global growth will be close to trend, but the foundation is narrow, he said.

Weakness in job creation and consumer spending in the United States was offset by data centre and artificial intelligence (AI)-related expenditure in the country, which comprised over 80 per cent of domestic spending in the first half of the year, offset weakness in job creation and consumer spending.

Next year will be a battle between two opposing growth drivers: the negative impetus from ongoing US policy uncertainty and the positive impetus from the AI-driven data centre investment boom, S&P Global Ratings said.

While both are global, the main story is coming from the United States. US trade policy uncertainty has settled down, but not US policy drama overall, Gruenwald observed.

“Uncertainty is a deal negotiation feature, not a bug of the current administration. Statutory US tariff rates may not move much in 2026, but uncertainty around laws, norms, investment rules, military actions, and geopolitics more generally will remain elevated. This uncertainty will likely dampen investment and discretionary consumption,” he wrote.

Data centre- and AI-related spending looks set to remain robust next year, driving investment spending and boosting technology exports, particularly to the United States.

Generalised uncertainty may even be an extra driver for AI-related spending. Other tailwinds for 2026 will be low energy prices and easy financial conditions, he added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)