Foreign production totaled 97.2 million bales in 2004/05 and is forecast to reach 88.6 million this season, the second highest on record.
China, India, and Pakistan combined are expected to account for 60 percent of total foreign cotton production in 2005/06. China's crop is currently forecast at 24.5 million bales, down from 29 million a year earlier.
India, the second leading foreign producer, is expected to produce 18.6 million bales, similar to 2004/05's 19 million. Meanwhile, Pakistan's cotton crop is forecast at 9.75 million bales, down nearly 14 percent from a record 11.3 million bales last season.
While world production declines this season, global cotton consumption is expected to continue its growth.
In 2005/06, world consumption is forecast at nearly 114.9 million bales, a record and 5.6 percent above 2004/05.
Over the last 5 years, cotton consumption has expanded nearly 23 million bales (25 percent) and has doubled in the last 30 years.
Foreign consumption surpassed 100 million bales in 2004/05, and is expected to climb to 108.9 million this season.
Although demand for cotton products has risen in the developed world, increases in raw cotton consumption over the last several years have also been driven by GDP growth in many developing countries.
With the growth in global consumption of cotton, world cotton trade is forecast to reach an unprecedented level in 2005/06. This season, world trade is expected to grow to 41.3 million bales, 6.6 million (19 percent) above last season.
As a result of these supply and demand projections, global stocks are expected to decline slightly to 50.9 million bales, while foreign stocks fall 4 percent to 44 million.
United States Department of Agriculture
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