Global cotton use to rebound marginally in 2012-13

China’s ending stocks are expected to increase 25 percent to 37.6 million bales. If realized China’s share of world stocks will be 47 percent. China’s ongoing policy of cotton procurement for the national reserve has contributed to this buildup in ending stocks. While India’s ending stocks are forecast to increase 13 percent to 8.7 million bales, Pakistan’s ending stocks are expected to rise 12 percent to 3.4 million bales in 2012/13.

Ending stocks in the United States and Turkey are forecast at 5.4 million bales and 1.3 million bales, respectively, up 61 percent and 5 percent from a year earlier. With larger world stocks, the A-index has fallen more than 20 percent below the year-ago level.

World 2012/13 Trade To Decline

World 2012/13 imports are forecast at 37.7 million bales, down 16 percent from the previous year. The forecast decline in world imports is driven largely by an expected decline in China, where 2012/13 imports are forecast to decrease 53 percent to 11.5 million bales. China’s ongoing national reserve policy has reduced its demand for foreign cotton.

Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.7 million bales and 2.3 million bales in 2012/13, respectively, both up 16 percent from a year earlier. Pakistan and Turkey are expected to import 2.4 million bales and 3.5 million bales in 2012/13, respectively, up 140 percent and 47 percent from the previous year.

Exports by Australia and Brazil, the main Southern Hemisphere suppliers, are both forecast at 4.2 million bales, respectively, down 10 and12 percent from a year earlier. The African Franc Zone is expected to export 3.3million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 40 percent from the previous marketing year. India is forecast to export 4.0 million bales in 2012/13, down 64 percent from a year earlier, leaving Brazil and Australia tied as the world’s second largest cotton exporter.

The United States—the world top cotton exporter—is expected to export 11.8 million bales in 2012/13, marginally above last year.

U.S. Department of Agriculture