Average weather conditions anticipated from now until planting commences in October, combined with excellent soil moisture levels in some cotton growing regions is expected to improve the production prospects for 2006/07.
Production for 2005/06 is estimated at 610,000 MT. Industry sources suggest the 2005/06 crop experienced “excellent” finishing conditions with widespread rainfall followed by drier conditions during harvest. Some regions in Queensland were affected by poorly timed rain during harvest.
Yield
Forecast cotton lint production for 2006/07 assumes a yield of 1.79 MT per hectare. This figure is higher than the 10 year average of 1.65 MT per hectare but slightly lower than the five year average of 1.81 MT per hectare. Recent times have seen cotton yields improve greatly.
Exports
Total cotton lint exports for 2006/07 are forecast to reach 635,000 MT. This represents an increase of 30,000 MT from the previous year and remains in-line with the forecast production increase in the forecast year. According to historical data, the export forecast, if achieved, would be considered slightly above average.
Consumption
Consumption is forecast to remain unchanged at 25,000 MT in CY 2006/07. Post does not anticipate any increases in domestic consumption of cotton lint in the foreseeable future.
The relative high cost of processing cotton within Australia ensures the vast majority of Australian cotton production is exported for processing.
Official trade statistics show Australia exported 435,119 MT for the year ending July 2005.
Indonesia was Australia's largest export destination receiving around one third of total exports. China received around 19 percent of total exports, up from 5 percent two years earlier. Thailand, South Korea and Japan were Australia's next three largest markets respectively.
United States Department of Agriculture
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