The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2006/07 indicates that, with global cotton consumption exceeding production, world ending stocks are expected to decrease.
Global stocks are forecast to decline nearly 5.5 million bales (10 percent) this season to 46.7 million, the lowest in 3 years.
Meanwhile, stocks as a share of global cotton consumption are projected at their smallest in a dozen years. In 2006/07, this share is forecast at 38.2 percent, well below the 10- year average of 51.6 percent.
China has played a significant role in this reduction over the past decade as stockholding policies there have changed. For 2006/07, China, the United States, and the rest of the world as a group are each expected to hold smaller stocks as a share of world consumption.
In China, the share is forecast below 10 percent for the first time since 1993/94, while the United States accounts for an additional 4 percent and the rest of the world contributes the remaining 25 percent.
US Department of Agriculture
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