US cotton output forecast at 20.3 million bales for 2006/07
18 Sep '06
3 min read
According to USDA's September forecast of the 2006 cotton crop, U.S. production is projected at 20.3 million bales, 100,000 bales below the August forecast and 15 percent below last season's record crop.
U.S. crop conditions have remained considerably below last season and have led to a national abandonment rate of 16 percent (nearly 2.5 million acres).
Upland production is projected at 19.5 million bales, 3.7 million below last season, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is forecast at a record 825,000 bales, about 200,000 bales above 2005.
During the previous 20 years, the September forecast has been above final cotton production 8 times and below 12 times. Past differences between the September forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three that the 2006 U.S. cotton crop will range between 19.0 and 21.7 million bales.
Compared with last season, upland production is lower in three of the four Cotton Belt regions. Only the Delta region is projected to produce a crop larger than a year ago.
Delta production is forecast at nearly 8 million bales, 7 percent above last season and a record, as area is at its highest in 5 years.
In contrast, the largest decline is forecast for the Southwest, where production is expected to fall 36 percent from 2005's record to 5.7 million bales.
Drought conditions in the region have led to large abandonment expectations and the lower crop estimate.The Southeast is forecast to produce a 4.4-million-bale crop, 15 percent below 2005 but near the 5-year average for the region.
marketing@alchempro.com
