The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2006/07 indicate a larger foreign crop and smaller consumption compared with the September forecast; both 2006/07 production and consumption are above last season's respective estimates.
At 95.5 million bales, foreign cotton production this season is expected to rise nearly 6 percent or 5.2 million bales.
Meanwhile, foreign consumption continues to expand, rising 5.7 million bales or 5 percent to 115.7 million bales. As a result, the gap between foreign consumption and production remains large.
Based on the October projections, the 2006/07 foreign consumption/production gap is estimated at a record 20.2 million bales. Over the past 5 years, this gap has been as low
as 5 million bales (2004/05) but has averaged 13.5 million.
Although forecast consumption is rising in countries that are also major producers, foreign import demand in 2006/07 is expected to reach 42.8 million bales, the second highest on record.
United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
marketing@alchempro.com
